Bet-Analytix Logo

Match Odds Probability Calculator

Analyse the odds of a match with 2 or more outcomes, strip the bookmaker margin and get the true implied probabilities.

Enter the decimal odds for each outcome. You can customise the label for each selection.

Bookmaker margin14.54 %
Outcome 1Odds 1.90
Raw prob.:52.63 %
Fair prob.:45.95 %
Fair odd:2.176
Outcome 2Odds 3.00
Raw prob.:33.33 %
Fair prob.:29.10 %
Fair odd:3.436
Outcome 3Odds 3.50
Raw prob.:28.57 %
Fair prob.:24.95 %
Fair odd:4.009
Sum of raw probabilities114.54 %
Sum of fair probabilities100.00 %

How it works

This calculator lets you analyse the odds of a match with 2, 3, 4 or more outcomes (home win, draw, away win, extra time, etc.) and separate the raw probability from the fair probability, net of the bookmaker's margin.

The raw probability is simply the inverse of the odds (1/odds). But bookmakers build a margin into their prices to guarantee a revenue stream: the sum of raw probabilities always exceeds 100 %. The fair probability normalises those probabilities to sum to exactly 100 % by stripping that margin. It is the bookmaker's actual implied estimate for each outcome.

The fair odd is the odds that would match the fair probability with no margin baked in: if the displayed odd is lower, the bookmaker is pricing you out on that outcome; if it is higher, you may have identified a value bet. By showing the overall margin, this calculator also helps you compare bookmakers' competitiveness: a margin below 3 % is excellent, above 6 % and you are paying a premium for the service.